Prime Highlights
- Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth is forecast to jump to 6.8% in 2027 from 0.9% in 2026, backed by an oil sector rebound and stronger non-oil activity.
- Crude production is set to rise to 10.4 million barrels per day in 2027, with the oil sector expected to grow 14.3% after contracting 3.6% in 2026.
Key Facts
- Riyad Capital is a Saudi investment bank whose Second Quarter 2026 Economic Chartbook was prepared by Chief Investment Officer Hans Peter Huber.
- Non-oil activities are forecast to grow 4.7% in 2027, continuing to outpace global economic growth and supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification drive.
Background
Saudi Arabia’s economic performance will experience strong growth in 2027, following a weak year where GDP will expand at only 0.9% compared to an estimated 6.8% in 2027, according to Riyad Capital projections.
The forecast is contained in the Second Quarter 2026 Saudi Economic Chartbook compiled by Chief Investment Officer Hans Peter Huber. Underlying the prediction is the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz oil pipelines will reopen starting in September 2026, thus enabling Saudi crude oil production to increase as before the US-Iran dispute.
Oil sector output is expected to shrink 3.6% this year before bouncing back with 14.3% growth in 2027. Crude production is set to climb to 10.4 million barrels per day in 2027, up from 9.1 million barrels per day in 2026. Brent crude is forecast at $75 per barrel next year, down from $86 per barrel this year.
Non-oil sectors are holding steady. Growth is seen at 3.0% for 2026, increasing to 4.7% in 2027, driven by investments in tourism, logistics, manufacturing, technology and services according to Vision 2030.
The budget deficit of Saudi Arabia is forecast to fall from SAR228 billion for 2026 to SAR189 billion in 2027. Debt level for the government is projected to be SAR1.94 trillion by 2027, accounting for 35.9% of GDP.
Inflation level stays relatively low at 2.1% for this year and 2.0% for next year. Unemployment level is estimated to decline from 3.2% this year to 3.0% next year.
